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標題: [Econ] [2016DSE]ECON BUSINESS CYCLE(RECESSION/RECOVERY)定義問題 [打印本頁]

作者: shamlee    時間: 2016-3-16 09:00 PM     標題: [2016DSE]ECON BUSINESS CYCLE(RECESSION/RECOVERY)定義問題

請問2016DSE入面,要介定RECOVERY/RECESSION
係睇REAL GDP 淨值 升/跌
OR睇REAL GDP GROWTH RATE升/跌而定?

因為老師講過淨係睇GDP升定跌就OK,即使REAL GDP GROWTH RATE比上一年低,只要唔係負數都當係RECOVERY

但係做緊CE個D MC MARKING係根據REAL GDP GROWTH RATE升跌而定,請問係唔係CE同DSE SYLLABUS有唔同?DSE應該睇咩?
唔該各位
作者: williamEX    時間: 2016-3-17 11:20 PM

我唔可以好肯定咁答你
但係recession growth rate
只係低
唔係一定要係負

但點樣定義為低呢
書係無寫的

但因為好多business cycle 圖都係會劃個recession 係個圓底
咁所以應該要睇埋change of growth rate 係turning point個位
作者: DSEEconTutor    時間: 2016-3-22 08:16 PM

好高興終於有人討論呢個問題!
其實Recession的定義仍然有好多人爭論緊,以下係The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research所提供,亦係Economists會用的定義:
A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
但係考試時同學既處理手法就唔同。除左2000的一條LQ外,其他題目都係以一幅圖既升跌決定。因為題目一般都有比到Long-term Growth rate既Trend,考評局以deviation from this trend決定Recession。考試時,除非題目有比其他Hints,否則睇Graph的Shape都穩陣的。




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